Most respondents to polls say “don’t know” or “no comment” on whether they intend to vote ‘No’ on D-day so a Brexit is quite possible.
The conditions Cameron negotiated with the EU are unclear and the pressure that Obama has put on UK citizens may be misunderstood.
We all know that the Atlantic treaty will kill millions of SMEs in Europe and mainly American and German mega-corporations will profit from it.
The economic situation in Portugal will worsen. The demand for export products will fall, as will their prices.
A small increase in available money for top income classes in Portugal will raise the imports of German and French cars. Thus, the balance of trade will worsen and the rating agencies will prevent Portugal from continuing to borrow from the ECB. As a consequence, interest rates on the financial market will rise for Portuguese bonds and for private loans.
The Troika will continue to press Portugal to cut expenditure and as no government here nor in the EU has the courage to cut high-up jobs in the public sector, it will raise VAT which will cut demand for domestic goods.
This will bring unemployment and thus more public expense.
We will face exactly the same problems as in the depression of 1930. The same, but in different degrees, will happen to most of the Eurozone countries.
BREXIT will bring new possibilities for the UK to sell machines and cars to countries which already are developing quickly, such as New Zealand, Australia, Chile, Bolivia and Colombia; and soon Canada.
Some small countries in the EU that want to quit the Euro but cannot, like Finland, Austria and Greece, will probably use the procedures for the UK to leave the EU and take the same option.
Denmark and Sweden, which are not in the Eurozone, have watched strong development in Norway, which is neither in the Euro nor in the EU, and may follow the UK and other countries.
A few experts already are talking about a NEW EFTA. That was an excellent Free Trade agreement between seven small countries and the UK with full independence and no bureaucracy which competed with the EEC.
Thatcher thought it would be good to have influence in a larger Union; but bureaucracy developed into the monster we have now, managed in fact by the lobby and a few banks.
I see nothing but bad news for Portugal. As 53% of electors in Portugal preferred NABO - N-ule, A-bstention, B-lanc and O-ther(nano-parties) - instead of traditional parties, there may be a lot of complaints next year. But I doubt anything will change.
I hope that Brexit will bring such turmoil to the EU that a major change in the system will come. Otherwise the situation is very similar to May 1968 when the student revolution in Paris brought some forced changes in most European countries.