Thursday, 20 July 2017
A- A A+

refugeeraftA new study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation has concluded that the country needs a positive migratory balance in order to maintain the working population and keep it paying into the social security fund which, in turn, will be paying pensions to an increasing number of retirees.

The study ‘Migration and Demographic Sustainability’ was coordinated by João Peixoto, Daniela Craveiro, Jorge Malheiros and Isabel Tiago de Oliveira and represents the first joined-up thinking on impacts across various interrelated sectors of demographics, economics, employment and social security receipts.

A net rise in immigration is said to be decisive in order to balance the rise in retirees and to halt a substantial overall decrease in the Portuguese population.

Based on 2014 data from the National Institute of Statistics, the study had a go at predicting how many immigrants will be needed to keep the population at 2015 levels and to keep the social security fund topped up.

Without immigration, the resident population of Portugal is expected to reduce from the current 10.4 million to around 7.8 million by 2060.

In order to maintain the current population, we need a net 2.2 million people between 2015 and 2060, but if we look at people of working age (15-64) the number is more ambitious as 3.4 million more immigrants than migrants will be needed.

On average, a migrant surplus of 75,000 people per year would be required to prevent the size of the working age population from falling - this is for the next 45 years, each and every year.

This is also why migration can’t be "the only strategy to compensate for aging and the resulting problems."

The authors conclude that it is totally unrealistic to reduce the overall age profile of the Portuguese population based solely on attracting immigrants. To do this, Portugal would need to increase the working population by 590,000 immigrants by 2060.

The study also shows that the category of workers which will be scarcer as of 2020 is the one for highly qualified workers with higher education.

This is a looming problem that successive governments have failed to address.

The current Prime Minister, António Costa, already has said he would accept 10,000 refugees, later doubling this figure, but with but a trickle of people arriving from the holding camps of Greece and Italy, the net result has been insignificant - less than 1,000 as 40% of the refugees accepted by Portugal already have left the country to join family and to find work where there is work, in northern Europe.

The demographic shift is not unique to Portugal with the only country in the European Union reporting a birth rate sufficient to replace its own population being France.

Portugal’s government and the report’s authors, focus on paying pensioners out of the social security fund, which anyway is predicted to dwindle as there will be fewer people paying in.

There are other sources of revenue that the government can use to support its growing band of pensioners. If Portugal remains a country full of low-grade and low-paid jobs, then pensions must drop in value or other areas of government spending must be cut.

Comments  

+1 #6 michael ferrada 2017-05-21 14:53
75.000 Immigrants a year to Portugal to fill in the !Gap"!?? I agree with Rev's comment... "One has to agree with all of the comments above which clarify the problems / advantages of admitting 75,000 migrants a year to boost our workforce and maintain the social security fund in the future. However, as we at this time have an unemployment rate of plus or minus 10% of our workforce, and then look at the fact that, included in this overall figure, we have 23% of our young people under 25 years of age, who cannot get jobs, because they don't exist, where does the `Migration and Demographic Sustainability` think tank ??? imagine that the jobs for the 75,000 a year migrants are going to be found ???????? Add to this, where is the housing of this number of people per year to be found ????? School places for their children, additional medical services and all that these several things will cost. Perhaps the think tank should think again. !!!"
Quote
0 #5 Rev. 2017-05-21 12:11
One has to agree with al of the comments above which clarify the problems / advantages of admitting 75,000 migrants a year to boost our workforce and maintain the social security fund in the future. However, as we at this time have an unemployment rate of plus or minus 10% of our workforce, and then look at the fact that, included in this overall figure, we have 23% of our young people under 25 years of age, who cannot get jobs, because they don't exist, where does the `Migration and Demographic Sustainability` think tank ??? imagine that the jobs for the 75,000 a year migrants are going to be found ???????? Add to this, where is the housing of this number of people per year to be found ????? School places for their children, additional medical services and all that these several things will cost. Perhaps the think tank should think again. !!!
Quote
+2 #4 mj1 2017-05-19 19:36
when there was here a great influx of east europeans who were highly skilled, they were used and cheated by so many..eg a doctor who had to work as a cleaner,
a structural engineer working as a labourer

so many have left for pastures new
Quote
+2 #3 liveaboard 2017-05-19 07:33
The wily Germans have been taking the cream off the top of the refugee pool, scooping up the most educated and skilled ones.
Yes, there are many; for some reason, people seem to think that because these people come from North Africa, they must be Bedouins or beggars. In fact, it's the educated middle class who have [had] the money required to smuggle themselves to Europe.

So, what Portugal needs to do is allow more immigration for qualified people, without making citizenship too easy. Because as soon as they become citizens they can leave and earn more money in other EU countries.

Immigration makes money for the receiving countries, costs are far outweighed by benefits if you allow the new people to work.
Of course there are demographic challenges, and it has to managed intelligently; but the more freedom you give people, the more wealth they will create.
Quote
+4 #2 Mike Towl 2017-05-19 06:23
Humanitarian considerations aside, can anyone explain how annually importing 75K non-Portuguese speaking, un-skilled and destitute migrantes from sub-Saharan Africa is going to buoy up the social fund. Just the reverse you might think.
Quote
0 #1 Malcolm.H 2017-05-18 19:13
Portugal has only itself to blame! So many of the -------- highly qualified workers with higher education.---- have already been and gone! For example, the thousands of us British who had wasted years and their health and wealth attempting to better themselves in Portugal - unwitting that Attacking the British was not just a line in the National Anthem but the national sport. Even more popular than footie.
So, as nothing has since changed for the better, us British now busy warning off their countryfolk from repeating their mistake.
Quote