Tuesday, 25 July 2017
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oldpersonA new report shows that Portugal soon will have an unsustainable number of pensioners supported by a declining workforce, a low birth rate and not enough immigration to fill the gap.

Portugal holds sixth place in the 'aged population' chart, and if things don’t change, by 2051 the country will have a lower population than in 1950, even though its population will be better educated and healthier.

The new study from the Platform for Sustainable Growth, released on July 14th, was presented by researchers Teresa Ferreira Rodrigues and Filipa Castro Henriques who have analysed the national demographics, estimated the future situation based on projections and recommended measures to alleviate the problems.

The main problem is that successive governments have passed the buck or, if they have done something to start to shift the demographics, have failed.

An example is the current prime minster who, on being told that Portugal’s allocation of refugees would be around four thousand, stated that he would take 10,000, or even 20,000, yet Portugal has taken less than 2,000 refugees, the majority of whom already have moved to countries in northern Europe.

According to the executive summary of "(re)birth: demographic challenges posed to Portuguese society", it is estimated that in 2051, the ever-aging Portuguese population will have fallen to 8.4 million, less than in 1950.

"Even in the most optimistic scenarios of recovery of the fertility rate and/or a positive migratory balance, it will be difficult to avoid population decline," reads the study, noting that in 2051 "there will be three times more old people than young people."

As a consequence of the aging population, the reduction of the working population to 2.4 million workers by 2051 will be the same figure as in 1940, “If there is no change in the structure of the labour market, the retirement age and the reception of immigrants."

The researchers, stress that the labour market "will undergo significant transformations,” with increasing robotics and digitisation.

Among the measures proposed to avert this situation, the authors mention an increase in retirement age, the reconciliation of work and family life, the removal of obstacles for those who wish to form a large family, migration policies that guarantee the full integration of resident aliens, and incentives to employ the young while retaining older workers.

On the plus side, the report lists the "good reception of immigrants, good progress in public health, low infant and juvenile mortality and the "remarkable evolution in schooling" with an increase in the number of university students, the reduction of school drop-out rates and the near extinction of illiteracy.

On the down-side, this government, like previous ones, will leave any hard decision making to subsequent administrations.

 

Comments  

0 #11 Charly 2017-07-17 08:26
sorry folks.... 60 + 47 = 107 and definitely not197.... but that's a lapsus from my computer. By the way : who wants to become so old anyway ???? Not me.
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0 #10 Charly 2017-07-16 19:22
Gentlemen, what's this all about ? I am pensioned for 17 years now and I calculated (correctely!) that the Belgian state (soc sec services) withelded from my salaries during my whole carreer an amount that allows
me to get my (decent) pension for exactely 47 years !
meaning: pensioned at 60 years + 47 = brings us to 197 years or in other words 2000 + 47 years = 2047 !!!! If this would not be the case than I have to conclude the state either MISMANAGED my money or STOLE my money !
My conclusion: I paid (more than enough) money to the state to Ensure my own pension. And I am convinced that is the same for many people. The rest are politics....
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+3 #9 John Williams 2017-07-16 11:05
Left off the list ------ the removal of obstacles for those who wish to ..... start a business. To Effectively Occupy. That is the one of the root causes and shows Portugal to be a beacon across the EU of retardedness.

Remember the UK's No Going Back TV programme ? That found Portugal so hopeless that its programme director described it as needing a special programme all its own - No Going Forward. His (Portuguese) researchers finding no successful British projects and stories progressing towards completion that the programme could connect to and follow. Even no Municipal officer, lawyer, architect or builder comfortable being interviewed and seen to be helping the British !
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+2 #8 chez 2017-07-16 10:24
Quoting Peter Booker:
One thing this report does not mention is that pensions will become unaffordable (if they are not already too expensive). Most western nations are deeply in debt, and their pension policy is making matters worse. In fact they borrow money to pay pensions, thus increasing their national debt. Someone must take unpleasant decisions


Euthanasia at 70?
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0 #7 Charly 2017-07-16 09:07
We have to consider 2 situations:
THE FOREIGN PENSIONERS living in Portugal dispose (in general) of good to very good pension arrangements (from their initial country). And believe me, they like to live and to enjoy here from the 3200 Sunny hours, the good fish, the good wine and the favourable taxations (from little to zero);
THE PORTUGESE PENSIONERS unfortunately have low to very low pensions - in the same way as 60% of the population has to live from the minimum salary of 554 €/month. And the expectations are not looking very optimistic.
THE THIRD CATEGORY ARE THE EXPATS LIVING AND WORKING IN PORTUGAL that come to their pension age: that's of course a super drama as no expact (or foreigner) can live from the aumone the portugese soc. sec. is paying out as a pension. On the other hand all expats learned "living and organising their lives" during their active carreer, meaning they took arrangements for savings and securities for the older days...
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+3 #6 NickA 2017-07-16 07:33
For many pensioners, a life time of employment and paying taxes should secure their pension. The fact that the Portuguese government (like others) have squandered their contributions rather than make sensible investment, has caused the problem - not the lack of young people.
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-6 #5 mr john 2017-07-15 19:40
Its obvious no one wants to live here.

As for pensioners, just up the pension age, oh let's say to 95 years or 99.68 years, just wait, give it time.
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0 #4 Margaridaana 2017-07-15 13:21
If national insurance contributions, (or the like) were invested instead of being squandered, then maybe the problem would not be quite so acute.
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-3 #3 Charly 2017-07-15 10:24
It should really be interesting to see that "an independant source" (can be an official international instance or a foreign university) either check this study
or make their own study and compare than to the Portugese results. Only then we can draw relevant conclusions from this assessment.
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+2 #2 dw 2017-07-15 09:56
Quoting Peter Booker:
One thing this report does not mention is that pensions will become unaffordable ...Someone must take unpleasant decisions

The easy solution is QE for pensioners. Instead of creating money from nothing and giving it to banks who mainly use it to speculate on property markets, give it to people who will spend the money in the real economy creating a multiplier effect.
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