A new report shows that Portugal soon will have an unsustainable number of pensioners supported by a declining workforce, a low birth rate and not enough immigration to fill the gap.
Portugal holds sixth place in the 'aged population' chart, and if things don’t change, by 2051 the country will have a lower population than in 1950, even though its population will be better educated and healthier.
The new study from the Platform for Sustainable Growth, released on July 14th, was presented by researchers Teresa Ferreira Rodrigues and Filipa Castro Henriques who have analysed the national demographics, estimated the future situation based on projections and recommended measures to alleviate the problems.
The main problem is that successive governments have passed the buck or, if they have done something to start to shift the demographics, have failed.
An example is the current prime minster who, on being told that Portugal’s allocation of refugees would be around four thousand, stated that he would take 10,000, or even 20,000, yet Portugal has taken less than 2,000 refugees, the majority of whom already have moved to countries in northern Europe.
According to the executive summary of "(re)birth: demographic challenges posed to Portuguese society", it is estimated that in 2051, the ever-aging Portuguese population will have fallen to 8.4 million, less than in 1950.
"Even in the most optimistic scenarios of recovery of the fertility rate and/or a positive migratory balance, it will be difficult to avoid population decline," reads the study, noting that in 2051 "there will be three times more old people than young people."
As a consequence of the aging population, the reduction of the working population to 2.4 million workers by 2051 will be the same figure as in 1940, “If there is no change in the structure of the labour market, the retirement age and the reception of immigrants."
The researchers, stress that the labour market "will undergo significant transformations,” with increasing robotics and digitisation.
Among the measures proposed to avert this situation, the authors mention an increase in retirement age, the reconciliation of work and family life, the removal of obstacles for those who wish to form a large family, migration policies that guarantee the full integration of resident aliens, and incentives to employ the young while retaining older workers.
On the plus side, the report lists the "good reception of immigrants, good progress in public health, low infant and juvenile mortality and the "remarkable evolution in schooling" with an increase in the number of university students, the reduction of school drop-out rates and the near extinction of illiteracy.
On the down-side, this government, like previous ones, will leave any hard decision making to subsequent administrations.