Last week was pretty busy on the macroeconomic front with Fed minutes, the ECB confirming a rate cut from June and plenty of economic data- however, this was all over shadowed by the escalating Middle East conflict with Iran launching a drone attack on Israel.
Renouncing US citizenship is becoming increasingly common among affluent expats residing in the Algarve, driven by tax considerations and policy shifts. Since the implementation of the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) in 2010, US citizens living abroad, particularly in the Algarve, have encountered significant challenges related to tax compliance and asset reporting.
The Dollar has hit a one-week low earlier this morning as recent economic data releases have ramped up expectations for quicker than expected Interest Rate cuts in The US. An unexpected slowdown in US Services growth has also contributed to the Dollar falling. It was stated yesterday by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell however, that the central bank would place a continued focus on the need for more debate and data before cementing decisions on rate cuts, a move which is currently expected to take place in June.
US Dollar strength in the last 24 hours has seen both GBP/USD & EUR/USD lose ground from last week, with both currency pairings losing close to 1%. GBP/USD had dropped to its lowest level since February with US manufacturing expanding for the first time since September 2022. Reports out of The US are also suggesting that inflationary pressures facing US companies were increasing again, with prices paid also on the rise.
This morning we’ve seen a basket of Euro data released from France, Spain and The Euro-Zone. Although preliminary Spanish Inflation data for March suggests a slight rise in prices, Consumer confidence across the bloc improved throughout March with possibilities of an interest rate cut on the horizon. Sticking with Europe, we have some pretty weighted data out tomorrow for Germany, in particular their Retail Sales for February and their unemployment figures for March.
If we look into the economic calendar for today, there is nothing coming out for the UK. Consumer confidence from Germany was rolled out this morning and is almost unchanged from last month. While on the topic, we do have consumer confidence from the US in the afternoon too. Highlights for this week will be German retail sales on Thursday and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) for the US.
UK Retail Sales showed promising signs for The UK economy, with figures coming in better than initially anticipated, albeit flatlining last month against expectations of a decline in sales. Any further optimism towards The UK’s economic health may well come in the form of our GDP numbers on Thursday, which will outline whether the recent recession was short-lived.
The recent election results in Portugal have sparked interest and concerns among wealthy expats and investors, particularly those residing in the Algarve, regarding the approach of the country's new government towards international investments and expatriate taxation.
