A new Fire Susceptibility Map reveals that 1 in 3 parishes in mainland Portugal show high signs of fuel for fires in 2026, a figure that rises to 2 in 3 parishes in the interior of the Algarve, a region historically classified as having the lowest fire risk in the country.
A rainy winter contributed to the accumulation of plant fuel in areas where owners would least expect it.
In 2 minutes, you can get your fire-clearing checklist, specific to your land. Simple steps you can take today to protect your land, and your community, from wildfires. Visit https://aminhaterra.pt/
Minha Terra analyzed the 3,049 parishes of mainland Portugal, using 10-meter resolution satellite imagery for 2026, supplemented by the official structural baseline from ICNF .
This new 2026 Fire Susceptibility Map, developed by “Minha Terra” in partnership with the forest fire science company MEJOR Technologies, used in conjunction with the national structural reference, shows where the fuel load is highest in 2026, offering owners and municipalities an updated view at the start of this years' fire season.
In the interior of the Algarve and parts of the Tagus Valley, the satellite layer identifies an unusual accumulation of fuel in areas that the structural map historically classifies as low risk, driven by a wet winter and an early warm spring.
The area affected by the 2025 fires in the central interior shows significantly lower levels this season compared to the long-term average, because the fuel that fed last year's fires has already disappeared.
The "Minha Terra" platform has created a free and personalized land clearing checklist, so that each landowner knows exactly what to clear before the end of the fire season deadline.
The map adds a specific 2026 reading on fuel load and vegetation conditions to the permanent structural classification published by the ICNF, whose Rural Fire Hazard Map represents the long-term structural factors of the landscape, such as relief, slope and land use history. The 2026 Fire Susceptibility Map captures an essential seasonal factor: fuel accumulation, vegetation density and ground cover.
The structural map answers a question about the long-term fire geography in Portugal. The seasonal layer reflects what exists on the ground at this time. Both maps coincide on the structural geography of fire risk in the country: the northern and central interior present a higher risk than the coast and the Sergipe plain, every year. Where they diverge is precisely where this time differs from the historical pattern.
A wet winter generated fuel in areas where it is not normally abundant. In the interior of the Algarve and in parts of the Tagus Valley, the 2026 layer identifies significant vegetation growth that the structural map does not capture, because it was not designed to reflect annual changes. An exceptionally wet winter and an early warm spring favored the accumulation of fuel in areas that many owners do not normally associate with fire risk. As a result, 2 out of 3 parishes in the Algarve show signs this season of high levels of fuel and vegetation, making them more susceptible to rural fires. This is precisely the type of seasonal signal that the map was created to identify.
Not all conclusions point to a higher risk this year. The 2025 fires are also visible in the data. In the central interior of Portugal, including Pampilhosa da Serra, Arganil, Covilhã and neighboring municipalities, the 2026 layer shows significantly lower values than the long-term structural reference. These areas remain structurally exposed over the decades, and the structural map continues to be correct in flagging them. However, the 2025 fires consumed much of the available fuel, and regeneration has not yet fully recovered. For landowners whose land burned last summer, the immediate seasonal pressure is currently lower than what the structural map alone might suggest. To help landowners act on this information, the “Minha Terra” platform has created a personalized land clearing checklist. Landowners enter the location of their land and receive specific clearing actions tailored to the plot, slope, and proximity to buildings. The tool is free, takes less than five minutes and comes at an important time: the official deadline for clearing land was recently extended until June 30, 2026, meaning there is still time to act.
Alex Griekspoor, CEO of Minha Terra, said: “For the first time we have a map that shows what exists on the land at this time, and not just the long-term structural view. In the interior of the Algarve, 2 out of 3 parishes contain more fuel than historical data would suggest. Municipalities and landowners need to act now. The checklist makes this information concrete for each plot of land. We are talking about land that many families have cared for for generations, and there is still time to protect it."
The complete data history, regional analysis, land clearing checklist and interactive maps are available at https://aminhaterra.pt/
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About Minha Terra
Minha Terra is a Portuguese platform dedicated to landowners, helping them understand, manage, and act on their properties. Developed to address the fragmentation of the land market in Portugal, the platform allows each owner to have a clear view of what they own and what they can do with their land.
Services include land registration, inheritance resolution, fire risk management, and land activation.
Minha Terra is developed by Land OS.
For more information, visit https://aminhaterra.pt/
