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Weekly Currency Forecast

Weekly Financial Update

Well that was a week, wasn’t it? No sooner had we published this newsletter last Monday, the UK Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, joined the resignation party in protest over the proposed Brexit plan, throwing things into yet more turmoil. And this of course led to the Pound losing ground against the Euro as the markets sensed a derailment of Theresa May’s strategy. The rest of the week was pretty turbulent with the GBP / EUR currency pair fluctuating between 1.25 and 1.1330 as Europe wondered where things could go now.

But the weekend provided some respite in the shape of a World Cup final and Wimbledon, though not for the struggling Mrs May who awoke this morning to the sound of a call for a second referendum, and this from her own party! It really is all eyes on the UK this coming week, with various bills being voted on in parliament, defeat of which could make the Prime Minister’s position untenable, and even a vote of no-confidence potentially derailing her plan for good. The EU is also expected to formally comment on the whole sorry affair too, providing yet more risk.

So what does this mean for the Pound? Well more of the same turbulence to be honest, although a raft of economic data is set to be released this coming week, including employment, wages and inflation. Employment is at a 40 year low, and inflation is edging up, further supporting a rise in interest rates in the near future. All of this could provide some well needed support for the poor old Pound, though whether it’s enough to fend off the Brexit pressure will have to be seen. Expected range against the Euro this week? 1.1270 to 1.1340.

In other news, President Trump has been to Scotland, met the Queen and is now having a one-to-one with Mr Putin. His tough stance on trade could well have a strengthening effect on the US Dollar, mostly to the detriment of Far Eastern currencies it would appear at this stage.

Have a good week and always expect the unexpected!

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The Premier FX Team

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