Currency Market Update - 15th May 2023

Currency Market Update The BoE delivered as expected a 25 bps hike last week with a relatively positive outlook, with a recession no longer on the cards in the UK and inflation expected to come down later this year. Unfortunately, this did not reflect well on the Pound, with GBPUSD falling to 1.24 down from 1.2680.

With such positive news it has left many people confused that the Pound retreated from highs following this news- part of this was due to Friday’s data- and the other part was traders simply taking profits from a pretty good rally over the last few weeks.

Data this week will be important, on Monday we have YoY Eurozone Industrial Production- we are expecting a lower number compared to previous which could weaken the Euro slightly. Later on Monday we have a few Fed speeches from Barkin, Cook and Kashkari, which may swing the Dollar a little if interest rates are mentioned.

On Tuesday we have UK unemployment data which is expected to stay the same at 3.8%, but employment change to come down to 160k (This would be because people who are currently out of work may not have registered as jobless just yet)- with average earnings also coming down slightly- if this all comes out as expected this does set a bad tone for UK employment.

Later on Tuesday we have EUR GDP Growth data in which we are expected to see some growth, which should be good for the Euro. Later we have U.S Retail sales, expected to come in positive at 0.7% which should strengthen the Dollar.

On Wednesday we have European inflation data which is expected to drop slightly to 5.6% which is good news for the Euro- where we may see EURUSD exchange rates rise a little.

On Thursday the key data release is jobless claims out of the US, where we are expecting to see initial claims drop to 254k and continuing claims to rise to 1833k- which will end up balancing out.



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