UK Core Inflation and Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) was forecast to drop by 0.1% (5.7%) and 0.2% (9.9%) respectively, but came in much higher at 6.2% and 10.4%, respectively. MoM inflation also rose by 0.5% to 1.1%. This will pose a big question for the BoE as a double-digit inflation may require more than the forecasted 25 basis points hike.
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The markets have been all over the place since the closure of SVB last week, which was joined by 5 other small banks as the week went on. The latest issue on the cards is Credit Suisse who are having problems, the issue with this is that Credit Suisse is very much one of the “Too big to fail” banks, and if this bank fails we do end up in a very 2008-esque situation.
The main highlight of the past few days has been the failure of the tech startup-focused SVB and the crypto focussed Signature Bank – Sweden’s largest pension fund (also known as Alecta).
Workers across the UK are getting less money in their pockets at the end of every month as regular pay in real terms fell by 2.4% in November to January, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
UK GDP grew by 0.3% month by month in January compared to December’s drop of 0.5%. It’s the service sector that carried this gain, while manufacturing dropped off for January.
The US Dollar has remained elevated this morning but further growth in the safe haven currency, following comments from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell which pointed towards further interest rate hikes to tackle soaring inflation.
Yesterday at the Federal Reserve’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the FOMC terminal rate could be higher than initially anticipated (in Sept 2022 the TR stood at 4.6% for 2023, now the market believes the rate stands closer to 5%); Subsequent Dollar strength saw Pound plummet over 1.5% against the Dollar.
