If politics was the main driver for currencies at the end of last week, then it most certainly was again throughout the past five days. Wherever you were this week everyone had one eye on the US presidential election.
It was an all but a steady introduction to the week for Europe; Germany reported a -0.6% monthly fall in factory orders while, for Euroland as a whole, retail sales were down by -0.2% and investor confidence improved by four and a half points to 13.1. Swiss inflation was steady at -0.2% and the Swiss National Bank's foreign currency reserves increased from SFr628bn to SFr630bn: they go up every month as a result of the SNB's interventions to sell the franc.

Portugal’s finance minister, Marion Centeno, has announced his proposed budget for 2017. The key reform that could affect expatriates living here is the introduction of a “wealth tax” on property.

It will now be debated in parliament, and once approved it will come into effect on 1st January 2017. There may be changes before the budget is finalised.

Investors' changing appetite for risk was the most important factor in the euro's week.  When they leaned towards nervousness - as they did when Donald Trump edged ahead of Hilary Clinton in the US opinion polls - they bought the safe-haven euro, yen and franc.

Portuguese women step away from your desks on November 13th, you won’t be paid from this date.

Expert Market, Europe’s leading B2B marketplace, has conducted new research investigating the full extent of the gender pay gap across the continent and found that for many months of the year, women are still effectively not being paid.

The next 12 months will be an uncertain world, with a busy political period with the US Presidential Election, continuing Brexit, and Elections in France and Germany. We expect much market volatility due to these events.

In recent decades, political events have had a limited influence on financial markets. But this is could be changing, particularly as we approach the US presidential election on 8 November.

The Euro was the biggest loser this week giving up almost 2% against the pound and 1.5% against the US Dollar. The majority of this move followed the European Central Bank meeting press conference with President Draghi. After initially confirming the ECB governing council did not discuss extending the QE program leading to a jump in the Euro value, he quickly undid this work by confirming that they did not discuss tapering the program either.

In the three months since the European Union referendum in the UK, there has been little impact other than the change of Prime Minister and the weakness in Sterling.

The FTSE 100 recovered quickly and even the FTSE 250 has regained its pre-vote levels, confounding the warnings from a range of experts. However, performance has diverged between companies with substantial overseas earnings and those which are more domestically-exposed.
Brexit will take several years to come to fruition. During this time, economic growth may slow because of uncertainty, but we do not expect a recession. So far, leading economic indicators confirm this. However, this period could be difficult, with politically-driven volatility shaping the investment landscape.

Losses of two thirds of a yen, a quarter of a Swiss cent and nearly one US cent pushed the euro into the back end of the field: only the Northern Scandinavian crowns, the pound and the South African rand had a worse run. The euro did nothing particularly wrong: most of the economic data from Germany and pan-Euroland beat forecast. It was just that investors' attention was elsewhere. It was on the United States, where it continues to look likely that interest rates will go up in December. And it was on Britain, where the referendum result continues to cripple sterling.