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Unemployment now well below 10% - but the figures are incorrect

unemployedPortugal’s headline unemployment rate has dropped to 8.8% at the end of the second quarter of 2017

It is the lowest figure since 2009 and Minister, Vieira da Silva, said he is convinced that the rate will continue to fall.

The National Statistical Institute says there are 461,400 people officially unemployed and Minister of Labour and Social Solidarity, Vieira da Silva, believes that unemployment will continue to fall until the end of the year, but refuses to put down a number.

The unemployment rate for young people (aged 15-24) was 22.7%, down 2.4% from the previous quarter and 4.2% less than in the same quarter of 2016.

The unemployment rates in the Alentejo (8.7%), Algarve (7.6%) and Centre (7%) were below the national average.

Those are the official figures which can be doubled to get the real picture with even the INE concluding that there are more than 900,000 unemployed, not 461,000, i.e. almost double the official rate.

Comments  

-2 #14 Ed 2017-08-13 15:14
Have a look at this source article:

http://observador.pt/2017/08/09/desemprego-real-e-quase-o-dobro-do-conhecido/

Ed
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-2 #13 RCK 2017-08-11 15:13
Quoting Ed:
Quoting Neil M:
Mr Ed,
Dorset you believe that the National Statistics

The way these unemployment stats are collected are standardised but each time exclude certain categories and situations. Yes, the figure is correct, but so also is the higher figure which includes more 'real time' data or the unemployed.

Ed - if we therefore assume a statistical sampling error of plus OR minus 95%, could the true Portuguese unemployment figure be nearer to only 23000 perhaps? Just saying ;-)
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0 #12 Neil M 2017-08-10 11:15
Facts and figures Mr charly, don't expect intelligent people to believe Speculation.
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-2 #11 Charly 2017-08-10 10:03
Dear mr Neil M, one cannot rely on Portugese stats. That has already been said hunderds of times by all international official instances. Concerning the budget I remember that a couple of years ago the EU asked "some friends and experts" pensioned and living permanentely in the Algarve "to give their (personnal) advice and comments and recommendations" on the - ridiculous - budget that had been entered that year...In the field of stats Portugal really has the status of "unreliable country".
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-2 #10 Ed 2017-08-10 09:49
Quoting Neil M:
Mr Ed,
Dorset you believe that the National Statistics

The way these unemployment stats are collected are standardised but each time exclude certain categories and situations. Yes, the figure is correct, but so also is the higher figure which includes more 'real time' data or the unemployed.
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-2 #9 Ed 2017-08-10 09:46
Quoting Neil M:
Mr Ed and Mr Charly,
I was not quoting from any politician.
I am quoting from the National Statistics Report on unemployment in 2017, and it did not mention, anywhere in the report the figure 900,000.
It is unfair on the readership to provide an article that is based on speculation, anyone can do that.
Please provide evidence based material, it would be appreciated.


I did not suggest you were quoting from a politician.

It is 'unfair on the readership' to deny them the comment from the National Statistics Institute that its unemployment figure is half that of reality.

This comment was not in the report. It is not speculation on my part as it is repeating a comment from the Nartional Statistics Institute which is in a pretty good position to comment.

I really don't know how else to explain this.
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+3 #8 Neil M 2017-08-10 09:36
Mr Ed and Mr Charly,
I was not quoting from any politician.
I am quoting from the National Statistics Report on unemployment in 2017, and it did not mention, anywhere in the report the figure 900,000.
It is unfair on the readership to provide an article that is based on speculation, anyone can do that.
Please provide evidence based material, it would be appreciated.
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-3 #7 Ed 2017-08-10 08:31
Quoting Neil M:
Again, I did not read this in the conclusion of the National Statistics report on employment for summer 2017.

You will not find the higher figure in the report. The Institute commented that its figure of 461,400 could roughly be doubled due to the way it collects and reports the unemployment information.
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-2 #6 Charly 2017-08-10 06:47
In other words, mr Neil, the politicians speak of 461.000 unemployed there were in reality there are double this number of unemployed people.
It seems to be the custom in Portugal that every politician "adapts" and "uses" stats for its own benefit.
"Truth" is not relevant and not important for these guys !
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+1 #5 Neil M 2017-08-10 00:12
Again, I did not read this in the conclusion of the National Statistics report on employment for summer 2017.
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