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"Portugal looks more like Germany than Spain" says the FT

ft"Portugal looks more like Germany than Spain," according to the view of the Financial Times which recognises that the employment statistics fail to reflect the number of workers who have left the country.
 
The FT discusses Portugal’s almost unique recovery experience but does not lay it on too thick, as many of the workers that have left will never return.
 
The Financial Times article published today, Wednesday April 4th, analyses some of the key economic indicators in its FT Alphaville blog, dedicated to investors.
 
The analysis focuses mainly on the Portuguese labour market indicators, based on the numbers published by Eurostat.
"Portugal's experience of the euro crisis was a bad hybrid of Greece and Italy. However, today it is much better than both," reads the article, stating that the
 
Portuguese labour market, "looks better today than anywhere else since the start of the Eurostat data series in mid-1990."
 
"This experience is almost unique in the Eurozone. From the point of view of the number of people in employment, Portugal looks more like Germany than with, for example, Spain," the newspaper says.
 
Another important aspect of the post-crisis situation in Portugal is the national accounts, with the FT highlighting the decline in the deficit, excluding the huge cost of recapitalising Caixa Geral de Depósitos.
 
The FT sees a more favourable balance of trade in Portugal, with an increase in exports and a reduction in imports and with tourism representing one third of the improvement since 2008.
 
Although there have been no significant increases in private consumption or public investment, the FT points to an increase in private investment by companies financed by those banks most exposed to the European Central Bank's active buying programme - with more purchases of equipment and machinery in the construction sector.
 
But, not everything is good news. The FT recognises that the employment statistics used omit the reality of the emigration of Portuguese workers and fewer foreign workers coming to Portugal.
 
"Hundreds of thousands of unemployed Portuguese have left for parts of the European Union where they have been able to find work, particularly in Germany and the United Kingdom. This flatters the employment rate, but represents a large - and probably permanent - loss of human capital," reads the commentary.
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Comments  

-3 #10 Darcy 2018-04-06 23:42
Think Rob has been sampling the latest edition in Wacky Backy...
+1 #9 Rob Talbot 2018-04-06 17:45
There is a perfectly simple explanation for the job growth in Portugal nowadays with the IMF and Brussels insisting that 'Portuguese ghost workers' must be legitimised. Portugal had a horrible record prior to the crash of so many businesses fully declaring, at most, only a quarter of their actual work force. As we repeatedly saw on TV with so many crashed firms, queues of workers then stretching down the road. All claiming that they had worked at X SA for years and had now discovered that none of their social security payments had ever been credited. How could these payments be made if - officially - these workers never actually existed ? .
-1 #8 marjolein Massis 2018-04-06 15:29
The weather in Belgium and the Netherlands is in the winter month amazing compared with the weather in Alaska. Older Portugese people hate the winter there. Wet humid and cold without central heating.Waiting outside in the rain for a bus, without cover is no fun. Hospitals are not the same as in the Northern countries. The majority of older people in the Northern countries do not have the income to go to Portugal for a month and pay the normal expenses at home too. That is the reality. The Algarve is already trying to organise more interesting places to go to with bad weather but there is a limit. The Algarve should try to produce more, or more schools, Universities for foreign students or other specialized education.The climate in the Algarve, in the winter, is not ideal for children or pensionades but for the in between perfect. And the in between have at the moment more money. Think about surfing, yoga, special sporttraining etc.
-2 #7 Denby 2018-04-06 08:15
Algarve depends on the tourist trade, the rest of Portugal doesn't and it's not good that the business community in the Algarve should resign themselves to thinking that once the summer months are over, that their work is done and their money is made for the year.
The weather, during the winter months in Southern Portugal is amazing compared to Northern Europe and I noticed that there was a lot more older people who migrated here for this reason.
The Portuguese tourist department should consider sending representatives to the various holiday and travel trade fair's in Northern Europe to sell the Algarve as a winter destination, but should produce a list of reduced price rental accommodation that wishes to be included in the initiative. For instance a one bedroom apartment could be rented for €450 per month, the benefits for the owner is that the winter clients are mature people and less likely to cause damage to the property and they are providing security, heat and they are responsible for keeping the apartment tidy and clean. This would be beneficial to the whole community in the Algarve as it could become established as a winter sun destination and some of the businesses could remain open all year round.
+1 #6 marjolein Massis 2018-04-05 16:01
To reduce rental accommodation cost by more than half in the winter is not a solution. The owners of the rental properties have much higher cost in the winter. More electricity because of shorter days, expensive heating cost specially for older people, older people have smaller budgets and do not go to restaurants so much, so restaurants will close anyway, etc. Because of the often bad weather, house owners will have only a few visiters, to expensive to keep the renting part of the house clean all winter etc. etc. Portugal must depend less on tourisme and more on simple industry with higher wages, better infrastructure for bad weather conditions and much lower IVA for winter month.The Government must take a hard look at how to adapt their income to the spending in the future. The weather is really changing.
+5 #5 Jack Reacher 2018-04-05 09:57
The Portuguese have left because of the rampant corruption and bureacracy that ravages the country. They are not chasing the weather..simply a more oportunistic outlook in the UK and Germany. Portugal is a home for the older generation looking for a comfortable and easy way of life. FACT.
+2 #4 Ed 2018-04-05 08:32
Quoting Denby:
Ed,
The cost of living in Portugal is much lower than the country's that you mentioned, but the government would need to give serious consideration to the minimum wage as it will be the deciding factor for Portugal's citizens living abroad.
What the government may need to give consideration to, is that these citizens who live and work abroad now have a different outlook on life, they will not be willing to return to a life that does not give them a good living standard.
I agree.
+4 #3 Denby 2018-04-05 08:30
Ed,
The cost of living in Portugal is much lower than the country's that you mentioned, but the government would need to give serious consideration to the minimum wage as it will be the deciding factor for Portugal's citizens living abroad.
What the government may need to give consideration to, is that these citizens who live and work abroad now have a different outlook on life, they will not be willing to return to a life that does not give them a good living standard.
+2 #2 Ed 2018-04-05 08:01
Quoting Denby:
Very positive outlook for Portugal's economy, but the government may need to give incentives to the citizens that work in other countries in order to entice them to return to the work market in Portugal.
They will need to be assured that, if they return to work in the hospitality industry, that there will be work all year round.
This can be achieved if government encourage rental accommodation to reduce their rental charges by more than half during the winter months to draw in more retired people to rent the empty houses that are vacant all winter, this will ensure that coastal communities remain open all year round and providing jobs all year round.

and restaurants to remain open


There are schemes for returning workers but with higher minimum wages in European countries (Switzerland €2,646, Ireland €1,509) the lure of just over €500 a month back in Portugal seem not too appealing for many of the 350,000 - 400,000 lost during the recession.
+1 #1 Denby 2018-04-05 07:39
Very positive outlook for Portugal's economy, but the government may need to give incentives to the citizens that work in other countries in order to entice them to return to the work market in Portugal.
They will need to be assured that, if they return to work in the hospitality industry, that there will be work all year round.
This can be achieved if government encourage rental accommodation to reduce their rental charges by more than half during the winter months to draw in more retired people to rent the empty houses that are vacant all winter, this will ensure that coastal communities remain open all year round and providing jobs all year round.

and restaurants to remain open

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