"We are far from being competitive," opines Lusa Manuel Tão, the transport specialist at the University of the Algarve.
Tão was describing Portugal’s railway system which is suffering from years of underinvestment and now faces competition under EU liberalisation rules.
Tão's conclusion is that Portugal simply is not prepared for competition from operators, which will happen from the beginning of 2019.
According to the European Union timetable, the liberalisation of the European rail market starts in 2019 and has an adaptation period that runs until March 2020.
This means that foreign operators can operate in Portugal and compete directly with Comboios de Portugal.
Tão is downbeat, "There is a perfect storm here. There is a situation that has built up: underinvestment in infrastructure, underinvestment in the State operator and a new institutional framework that comes from EU directives that brings us to a liberalised market."
As is already the case with low-cost airlines, rail operators will go down market and, "are going to become very common and vulgar," said Tão.
"This brings us to a completely new situation that was not thought of in a timely manner by the political powers in Portugal which have never worried about what was foreseen long ago, the liberalisation of rail transport. What is going to happen is that we will be confronted with a new situation for which we are not prepared," said the transport specialist, adding that the current situation "results from political options, since the entry of Portugal into the European Union, Portugal’s railways never have received investment, unlike the road system."
In this context, Tão said, it is difficult to find "mobilising forces that allow the recovery of investment in rail transport."
"Most likely what will happen is that the investment will come through direct foreign investment and external dynamics. Most likely it will be these operators who come from the outside who will dictate investment," said Tão, noting that it is very difficult to predict the near future of the railroad in Portugal and that, in this context, Comboios de Portugal may even disappear in the coming years.
The president of the Portuguese Association for the Development of Integrated Transport Systems, Tomás Leiria Pinto, agreed that Portugal is not prepared for the liberalisation of the rail passenger market, due to a lack of competitiveness.
Pinto said that the railway sector is facing a serious situation with regard to passenger and freight transport and the maintenance and modernisation of infrastructure.
Earlier in 2018, Germany's Deutsche Bahn expressed an interest in eventually connecting A Coruña in Spain, to Porto.
"When we do not have an operable railway line between Porto and A Coruña, with constant delays and having to change several times, we are far from being competitive," agreed Pinto.
