The UK-based bank says that leaving the bailout programme with a clean break like Ireland will have positive implications for Portugal's international credit rating.
In a note to clients the bank’s analysts believe that Portugal will go for full access to the international funding markets and that it will follow the Irish government which made a clean break from its bailout lenders.
HSBC predicts that the planned new issue of Portuguese long-term bonds at the end of this month will confirm the country’s entry into the mainstream and mark a clean end to reliance on Troika funding, and any interim funding structures that have been mooted.
Other banks and investment agencies have argued that the best solution for Portugal would be leave the adjustment programme with the safety blanket of an interim funding programme.
The government is leaving its decision until the last possible moment. If it successfully launches more bonds this month there is little to stop a full reintegration with international funders.
The recent national debt figures do not look good however, in fact they are the highest ever at around 130% of GDP, and the final decisionon how to exit the bailout programme is a key one for a leadership which has concentrated on headline-grabbing news of export success while skillfully avoiding being pushed on unemployment figures, an explosion families living in poverty and the social costs of its austerity measures.
