October general election - Socialists increase lead in the polls

Paul Rees 13 July 2019

antoniocosta Portugal’s ruling Socialist party has extended its lead, according to an opinion poll released three months before the general election.

This places António Costa's party on track to winning the majority he so keenly wants.

The ICS/ISCTE survey for Expresso weekly and SIC TV put the centre-left Socialists at 38% of voting intentions, up 1% from a survey in March.

The Social Democrats were on a disappointing 23%, down two points, and the conservative CDS-PP were on 5%, down 3 points

The Socialists' policy of fiscal discipline plus economic growth has cheered both Brussels and the key ratings agencies so even if Costa fails to get a majority this Autumn, he will be in for an easy ride from Portugal's creditors.

Portugal's growth is expected to outpace the euro zone’s average, and in 2020, the government expects to post the country’s first budget surplus for at least 45.

Andrei Khalip from Reuters commented that in the current legislature, the Socialists had to rely on the backing in parliament from two far-left parties, the Left Bloc and the Communists, the former being more prone to compromise than the latter.

With the Bloc rising to 11% of voting inventions, their support alone, be it via a deal in parliament or a coalition, would be enough for the Socialists to have a majority in the house, even considering the poll’s margin of error of 3.5%.

The threshold for a parliament majority can vary but usually 42% of the vote would be sufficient.

The Communist party was not far behind on 8%, meaning it could also become the Socialists’ single, if less likely, ally.

Another potential kingmaker is the People-Animals-Nature party (PAN), which has recently won a seat in the European Parliament after garnering 5% of the vote in May on a wave of concern about climate change and the environment.

The opinion poll put PAN at 4% of voting intentions for the Oct. 6 election.

The pollsters surveyed 801 people between 15 and 27 of June.

Comments

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+4 #23 Bruno André 2019-07-30 15:45

Jesus Christ, are you people really wasting your time getting mad and arguing on the portuguese anthem? What a nonsense. Understand that we the portuguese love you, but we have never forgotten how our british ally gave us an ultimatum. We are just proud to stand up to a big super power even if we are a small country. That’s all. Just a sibling fight. Don’t lose your sleep over it, you’re being ridiculous!

Yes, we are the "Poor Portugal", so what? If you don’t like go away.

+2 #22 Luso 2019-07-29 12:22

Quoting Elsa:

We need real Portuguese in on this Portuguese anthem discussion. Getting comment from other foreigners is pointless - as useful as the absurdity that the Treaty of Windsor has ever meant anything to the Portuguese when the Brits actually needed their help. So they attack us 100 years later in the Armada, in the early 1800's declare war on the UK and join Napolean's army and in WW2 help the Germans sink tens of thousands of tone of ours and US shipping that was keeping us going in the fight by denying us use of the Azores.Never the slightest use to the UK when in a corner.
We can all tell if a Portuguese is commenting on ADN as it is understandably "Poor Portugal". That this today is not what Portugal is in theory. The lying, cheating, fraud and general failure of public and private administration. The kind of 1974 Revolution now much frowned upon as it left the military in charge along with all their friends and family. All the bad guys stepping back into the shadows and fronted temporarily by pretend democrats - also friends and family. So what are the origins of these Portugal enthusiasts that so mislead us on their original 70 years active national anthem?

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Isso e so lixo ...

-5 #21 Elsa 2019-07-27 20:47

We need real Portuguese in on this Portuguese anthem discussion. Getting comment from other foreigners is pointless - as useful as the absurdity that the Treaty of Windsor has ever meant anything to the Portuguese when the Brits actually needed their help. So they attack us 100 years later in the Armada, in the early 1800's declare war on the UK and join Napolean's army and in WW2 help the Germans sink tens of thousands of tone of ours and US shipping that was keeping us going in the fight by denying us use of the Azores.Never the slightest use to the UK when in a corner.
We can all tell if a Portuguese is commenting on ADN as it is understandably "Poor Portugal". That this today is not what Portugal is in theory. The lying, cheating, fraud and general failure of public and private administration. The kind of 1974 Revolution now much frowned upon as it left the military in charge along with all their friends and family. All the bad guys stepping back into the shadows and fronted temporarily by pretend democrats - also friends and family. So what are the origins of these Portugal enthusiasts that so mislead us on their original 70 years active national anthem?

0 #20 AL 2019-07-27 11:38

Quoting Hamilton:

...the effort made in hiding the original chorus words is easily confirmed by Teixeira's 1890 Ultimato text in all PT libraries !

Your comment shows that you never read the book at all. How could you? It's in Portuguese!!

0 #19 Darcy 2019-07-27 11:19

[quote name="Hamilton"]Full marks to Elsa for keeping the original Portuguese
anthem as a hot topic.
.....................................
More like a Damp Squib .............

-3 #18 Hamilton 2019-07-26 18:39

Full marks to Elsa for keeping the original Portuguese
anthem as a hot topic - the effort made in hiding the original chorus words is easily confirmed by Teixeira's 1890 Ultimato text in all PT libraries !
What is weird is the UK being seen as anti-European and not a team player by retarded countries like Portugal. Consider the Pedrogao Grande illegal rebuilds of several dozen previously non-existent houses and many more legal 1st houses fire damaged but not rebuilt. It is just not remotely possible in the UK that Inland Revenue, Land Registry, local Councils, Police, Lawyers, architects, building companies, building material suppliers, neighbours with fire damaged houses but not having their own house rebuilt etc etc are all on the same page. All keeping quiet so that 2 official investigations by local PT prosecutors and GNR reveal nothing wrong (not surprisingly!) by their friends and families. A 3rd investigation allegedly driven by journalists has now pulled out 40+ arguidos. Yet the illegal houses are still standing and will soon be rectified (made legal) whereas in the UK the day after an illegal brick is laid it is dug up and the landowner prosecuted! A somewhat different culture and history of public administration!

+2 #17 Darcy 2019-07-25 15:55

This subject has been discussed at great length in the past few months and even ed got involved by printing the complete National Anthem.
I'm left wondering what this group of people are getting out pretending not to acknowledge the truth.

-2 #16 AL 2019-07-25 09:55

Quoting Elsa:

Why write an anthem about attacking cannons? Not exactly inspirational .... Perhaps a Portuguese can explain what (this is the hoot !) apparently drove the original song writers to choose cannons / canhões when a far more obvious target at the time - 1890 - was the British / Bretoes. These being the words actually used and when sung indistinguishable. But then look for examples in today's Portugal of successful, flourishing British Effective Occupation. You will not find them !

Dear Elsa, "A Portuguesa" might have been sang by unhappy Portuguese with the word "Bretões" before but then again the Brits have managed to alienate more than half of the planet so you can't really blame them. The alterations to the lyrics in 1957 had nothing to do with the word "canhões", it was there in the original version and it remains there still.
I know you struggle with the Portuguese language and also with Portuguese historical facts so I will translate the chorus that has been making you loose sleep for so many years:
To arms, to arms!
Over land, over sea,
To arms, to arms!
For the Fatherland, fight!
Against the cannons, march on, march on!
Not attacking cannons at all, it's all in your mind.

-5 #15 Elsa 2019-07-25 07:25

Why write an anthem about attacking cannons? Not exactly inspirational .... Perhaps a Portuguese can explain what (this is the hoot !) apparently drove the original song writers to choose cannons / canhões when a far more obvious target at the time - 1890 - was the British / Bretoes. These being the words actually used and when sung indistinguishable. But then look for examples in today's Portugal of successful, flourishing British Effective Occupation. You will not find them !

-5 #14 Darcy 2019-07-24 22:32

Quoting Elsa:

Egregious Darcy. When will a Portuguese have sufficient backbone to admit publicly that their anthem was specifically written to encourage "attack the British" 130 years ago after the 1890 Ultimatum. That it was not officially changed until 1957. Then only by swapping Cannons for the word British so as not to stress out today's Portuguese with new words but leaving the absurd notion of attacking cannons on land and sea. Why no mention of attacking cannons in the air or underwater as cannons are getting everywhere now? Soon laser cannons in space!
You can read in Publico of 3 scientific joint projects being trumpeted with the UK that celebrate the 650 years since the Treaty of Windsor Alliance. The Royal Society and similar UK research bodies has since been better informed of the attacks by the Portuguese on the British. Even today, no Brit is entirely safe - certainly not if crossing a Portuguese Red Line and attempting to effectively occupy!

____________________________________________

Elsa,
You are practically on your own, with your Anthem comments, don't you think that all British people would be complaining about this if it had any truth in it.

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