Portugal - high emigration, low immigration, results in 'demographic deficit'

Within the EU, Portugal has the second highest percentage of emigrants as percentage of population and one of lowest percentages of immigrants.

This is creating a startling scenario, more serious than in the 1960s, warned Rui Pena Pires, the scientific coordinator of the Centre for Emigration during a conference "Contemporary Portuguese Emigration" held in Lisbon today.

The combination of people leaving and not many turning up, places the country in a difficult long term position as those leaving could be taxpayers and of those returning many are retirees.

"Portugal is approaching the same situation as the least developed countries of eastern Europe," said the researcher from Lisbon University.

While recognising that the current situation is not new, as in the 60s Portugal had more emigration than immigration, Rui Pena Pires stressed that in the 60s the emigration was partially offset by the repatriation of Portuguese from Africa in the '70s when over half a million people returned to the country in a year and a half, after the 1974 revolution.

Currently the situation is now more concerning than in the 60s as not many Portuguese are returning from overseas, finding little reason to do so..

The researcher explained that "everything depends on the resumption of economic growth in Portugal” but warned that if this takes too long, "it becomes very difficult to correct the demographic deficit."

“At the moment the balance is negative” said Pena Pires, who estimates that there currently is a 90,000 to 95,000 net annual outflow from the country.

This is slightly lower than the estimate from the Secretary of State for Communities, José Cesário, who has highlighted a figure of 120,000, but Rui Pena Pires says that his figure is for permanent migrants, i.e. those staying away for over a year.

The investigator João Peixoto from the Higher Institute of Economics and Management in Lisbon was less pessimistic than Rui Pena Pires saying that the figure for the re-entry of migrants was higher.

Analysing data from the 2011 Census, João Peixoto and his team concluded that between 2001 and 2011 230,000 persons born in Portugal has returned from abroad after more than a year away.

Whatever the detail, one thing is for sure. There are fewer people of working age in the country who, when there are jobs, will become taxpayers. The increasing age profile of Portugal's population is not helped by one of the lowest low birth rates in the EU and if nothing is done to correct the 'demographic deficit' fewer taxpayers will be called upon to support more pensioners than is feasible.

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