Geographer and editor-in-chief of Meteored Portugal, Alfredo Graça, predicts that February will start with above average temperatures for the time of year, but in the second half of the month, a change is expected.
The climatological winter is about to enter its final month. Cold wintery weather and precipitation have been rare in recent weeks. This is due to the establishment of a strong crest-blocking anticyclone that has conditioned the weather in our country, bringing stability and temperatures significantly above average.
According to Alfredo Graça, geographer and specialist at Meteored Portugal, “February has a reputation for being very variable in meteorological terms, as drastic weather changes can occur in a matter of hours this month. Analyzing the climatology of February in mainland Portugal, it can be seen that this is one of the rainiest months of the year in our geography, as it has the fifth highest average monthly rainfall among the twelve months of the year (78.7 mm)”.
February 2024 will begin with high temperatures above the climatological reference average. According to the climatological normal (1981-2010), February is the third coldest month of the year in mainland Portugal, with average temperatures up to 1.7 ºC higher in inland regions than in January.
In several areas of the country, average maximum temperatures range between 16 ºC and 17 ºC (Center and West Coast, Lezíria do Tejo, Baixo Alentejo and Algarve ), with records of up to 26 ºC.
On the other hand, average minimum temperatures are still between 0 and 2 ºC in regions such as Northeast Trás-os-Montes and Beira Alta . All this takes on meaning when we know that in February the days get longer and daytime temperatures have a greater margin to rise, but the nights continue to be very cold in most parts of the country.
Will rain reach the regions that need it most in February?
For the first half of February, no substantive changes in the weather are expected. It is practically certain that until February 5th, high pressure will continue to prevail over mainland Portugal, which will result in widespread stability.
Changes may occur between the 5th and the 12th, but not very significant: the map shows lower than average rain levels in the Algarve. In the remaining regions, for this week, no unusual values were observed.
For the second half of February, there is a tendency for rainfall to normalize. However, the predictive value of these maps is very low due to the time period to which they refer, so it will be necessary to continue monitoring map updates.
For the second half of February, everything indicates that the Algarve region will be one of the few to register up to 1 ºC above average, with the rest of the continent's geography having temperature values within the reference climatological average. So, if this happens, the winter weather will be over, without a cold snap.
But in meteorology there is always room for surprises, especially in a month like February, known for its drastic variability in weather conditions.
