Forecast for June's European Elections

FORECAST FOR JUNE'S EUROPEAN ELECTIONSThe incumbent centrist parties are expected to keep control of the European Union parliament in the June 6th to 9th elections, despite a big swing to the far-right.

Ursula von der Leyen, the born-in-Brussels EU commissioner, has declared: “I am ready to keep serving our people and our continent with the passion, confidence and experience needed in these challenging times. I want to build a majority for a strong Europe, because we don’t have the luxury to be weak in the world. Let’s do it together. Let’s stand for democracy prosperity, and security. Let’s fight for our Europe.”

The elections will take place June 6th and 9th to choose 720 representatives for the parliament in Strasbourg. In Portugal, the election will be on June 9th to choose 21 parliamentarians. Because of their larger populations, eight of the 28 EU countries have more seats in the assembly. Germany tops the list with 96 seats. France has 81. The three smallest nations have only six each.

All of Portugal’s candidates have already been presented by their political parties or coalitions. They were required to be Portuguese citizens, Brazilians with an equal status of political rights, or citizens of other EU countries registered in Portugal. The full list is published (in Portuguese) on the website of the General Secretariat of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. It will also be published on June 9th in notices outside and inside the polling stations.

To be eligible to vote you need to be over the age of 18 and fit into one of three categories:

  • Portuguese citizens registered on the electoral roll of the national territory.
  • Portuguese citizens residing abroad who have not chosen to vote in another EU country.
  • Citizens of other EU countries registered in Portugal who choose to vote for Portuguese members of the European Parliament.
  • Brazilian citizens with a citizen’s card or identity card with equal political rights.

Polling stations will be in municipal council offices or at locations posted on notices in local council offices on voting day.

The biggest change within the EU in the coming elections is a strong shift to far-right populist parties. This will of course be to the detriment of the so-called “super grand coalition” of three centrist groups. A populist coalition of Christian Democrats, conservatives and radical right MEPs might even emerge for the first time as a majority.

The far-right Chega (Enough) party did remarkably well in finishing third in this year’s general election in Portugal. Other far-right parties are doing much better in other EU countries. The shift could be so significant that it impacts the ability of the European Commissions and Council to make foreign policy decisions, including implementing the next phase of the European Green Deal.
Of huge importance over the next five years of the next EU Parliament’s rule will be maintaining the continent’s defence security in view of the war in Ukraine, and uncertainty over the continuing allegiance of the United States.

Make no mistake, these are massively important elections coming up.

Written by Len Port - Photo courtesy of Depositphotos.com