Portugal’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, has officially scheduled next year’s looming presidential election for 18 January 2026, according to a statement published on the Presidency’s official website.
The announcement confirms that the head of state has signed the decree setting the date, which will now be published in the Diário da República, the country’s official state gazette.
President Rebelo de Sousa had already hinted in mid-September that he was leaning towards this date, explaining that he wished to avoid the Christmas period coinciding with the deadline for submitting candidacies, and to prevent a possible second round from falling on Carnival Sunday.
With the election now fixed for 18 January, any second round, which the law stipulates must take place three weeks later, would be held on 8 February 2026.
Had the election been scheduled for 25 January, a date Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had initially mentioned earlier this year, the run-off would have fallen on 15 February, which in 2026 coincides with Carnival Sunday.
Under Portugal’s Electoral Law for the Presidency of the Republic, the head of state must announce the date of the first ballot at least 60 days in advance.
If no candidate secures more than half of the valid votes, excluding blank ballots, a second round is held 21 days later, contested by the two candidates with the highest number of votes.
Candidates have until 30 days before the election to submit their nominations, which must be proposed by between 7,500 and 15,000 registered Portuguese voters of origin aged 35 or over.
The law also requires that both the first and any potential second round take place within the 60 days preceding the end of the incumbent president’s term. In this case, that period begins on 8 January 2026, with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s mandate officially ending on 9 March.
Since Portugal’s return to democracy, all presidential elections have been held in January, with the exception of the first two after the 25 April 1974 Revolution, which were held under special constitutional provisions linked to the start and end of the first parliamentary term.
With less than three months to go before, Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo has emerged as the frontrunner, according to the latest opinion polls. But the race remains wide open, with several contenders clustered close behind.
A Pitagórica poll conducted between 6 and 10 October 2025 places Gouveia e Melo at 26.9% of voting intentions, maintaining a modest but consistent lead. Pedro Marques Mendes follows with 20.3%, while former Socialist leader António José Seguro stands at 18.4%.
Further back, André Ventura, leader of Chega, polls at 13.9%, with Cotrim de Figueiredo of Iniciativa Liberal at 9.1%, and Catarina Martins, the former Left Bloc coordinator, at 1.9%. Around 10% of respondents remain undecided or support other candidates.
Compared with earlier surveys, Gouveia e Melo’s lead has narrowed slightly. In the spring of 2025, he was polling close to 29%, while support for his main rivals has since firmed up, signalling a gradual consolidation of the centre-right and centre-left electorates.
The polls also reveal a fragmented field, with no single candidate approaching the 50% mark required to win outright in the first round. Should the election go to a run-off, scheduled for 8 February 2026 if needed, current projections suggest Gouveia e Melo would hold an advantage against any opponent.
A second-round simulation by Pitagórica gives him 42% against 37% for Marques Mendes, with roughly one-fifth of voters undecided. Earlier data from Intercampus (March 2025) painted an even stronger picture for the former naval chief, suggesting he could command over 50% in a head-to-head contest.
Despite these numbers, analysts caution that high levels of indecision, often exceeding 20% in some polls, could still reshape the race in the coming weeks. With the campaign season about to enter full swing, the outcome of Portugal’s 2026 presidential election remains far from certain.
