There has been a shake-up in the presidential race to Belém - despite the overall tightness of the contest, Luís Marques Mendes, of the governing centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) has climbed to 22.6%, overtaking the independent candidate Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo (21.1%), who has suffered a sharp drop in the latest Pitagórica poll.
The two frontrunners do however remain in a technical tie, with António José Seguro, of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) close behind in third place on 17.4%. The biggest leap between October and November comes from the Liberal Initiative (IL) candidate João Cotrim Figueiredo (12.6%), who is now threatening infamous Chega populist André Ventura’s fourth place (14.7%). The Liberal Initiative, running on a liberal economic platform which promises to reduce the tax burden and liberalise the labour market, has proven popular amongst voters on the centre-right who have grown tired of Chega’s flirtations with scandal, as well as the perceived status quo of the ruling Social Democratic Party government.
On the other side of the coin, Ventura has recently found himself in hot water with public prosecutors, largely over a series of billboards branded as being xenophobic, due to their content targeting individuals from a Roma and Bangladeshi background. Mind you, this is only the most recent and significant of hiccups which form a continuous thread of chaos right from the Chega party’s inception less than a decade ago.
On the Left, despite an improvement for the Left Bloc’s (BE) Catarina Martins (4.4%), the picture is bleak: António Filipe, of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), sits at 2.5% and Jorge Pinto of the green left-wing LIVRE party at 1.4%.
It is to be noted that the poll’s analysis ran from 5 to 14 November, coinciding with the controversy triggered by the release of a book-length interview with the Admiral. The episode spilt over into a public quarrel involving the sitting President of the Republic and gave the PSD candidate an opportunity to attack what he described as his opponent’s “contradictions” and “nonsense”. Coincidence or not, Gouveia e Melo’s one-and-a-half-point advantage over Marques Mendes in October has flipped into an almost seven-point disadvantage in November.
Moreover, neither frontrunner manages much more than one in five voting intentions, a sign of heavy vote dispersion with just two months left before polling day on 18 January.
The race is therefore a technical tie: factoring in the margin of error, the former Navy chief could enjoy a four-point lead at the top end of his range (23.7%) versus the PSD veteran’s minimum projection (20%). But the reverse is equally possible: Marques Mendes could reach 25.2% while Gouveia e Melo slips to 18.5%.
Should that occur, the news worsens further for the independent candidate. António José Seguro’s upper limit, despite losing a point since October, reaches 19.8%, placing him in contention for second place and therefore a run-off. At this stage of the race, and as a marathon of televised debates begins this Monday, these three candidates are the only ones polling at levels compatible with a second round. And the run-off scenarios tested by the poll show significant shifts compared with October. As mentioned above, the Left’s prospects dim considerably.
The PSD heavyweight stands out in the North (ten points ahead of his nearest rival), among higher-income voters (six points ahead of Cotrim Figueiredo), among women (where he has the sharpest gender imbalance), and in the age groups 18–24, 45–54 and 65+.
However, the admiral leads in the South and islands (by nearly seven points) and in the Lisbon region (three points ahead of the Liberal candidate). He also tops the rankings among lower-income voters (with Ventura close behind) and the middle class, in the 35–44 age group (with Cotrim in second place again), and among men (two-and-a-half points ahead of Ventura).
António José Seguro tops only two segments: voters aged 55–64 (six tenths ahead of Mendes) and residents of the Central region (three points ahead of the PSD candidate). Cotrim Figueiredo leads only among 25–34-year-olds (six points clear of Mendes). Ventura, meanwhile, wins no segment outright but places second in several; he holds the highest proportion of male voters and performs best among lower-income respondents (20.9%).
As for the three Left-wing contenders, their numbers remain modest, though there are pockets of relative strength: Catarina Martins has the most female support and reaches 13% among 35–44-year-olds; António Filipe outperforms his average in Lisbon and especially among 25–34-year-olds (5.2%); Jorge Pinto doubles his overall average in the South and islands.
Source: LUSA/Pitagórica/JN
