Immigrants in Portugal account for 14% of total contributions to the Social Security system, amounting to more than €4.15 billion in 2025, according to a report released by the Migration Observatory (OM) research group.
“The biggest surprise is that this increase did not take place gradually over ten years, but mostly in the last few years,” said Pedro Góis, the Observatory’s scientific director, speaking to press. He attributed the surge largely to the pressure created by “regularisation mechanisms that were dependent on contributions to Social Security”.
Since 2022, contributions from foreign nationals have more than doubled, reaching the current €4.15 billion, far above the mere €481 million recorded in 2015, the year when Social Security began distinguishing between foreign and Portuguese citizens in its databases.
The report, titled “Financial contribution of foreign nationals to the current financial balance of the Portuguese Social Security system: administrative evidence for the period 2015–2025”, points to strong growth in the annual pool of contributors, rising from 204,150 people in 2015 to 1,115,541 people in 2025. In this most recent year, foreign nationals accounted for 14% of all contributions paid into the system.
In 2025, Social Security benefits paid to foreign nationals totalled €822.02 million, “corresponding to a positive net balance of approximately €3.33 billion,” the report notes, highlighting the “particularly striking expansion” in the figures.
Between 2015 and 2025, the number of foreign nationals registered in the system rose by 447%, while their contributions increased by 763%, the researchers revealed. According to the report, this reflects “not only a demographic scale effect, but also a strengthening of the average contribution intensity”.
According to Pedro Góis, the level of contributions is “broadly in line” with the Portuguese labour market, although the Observatory does not yet have data on average contributions per individual, which would allow for a more detailed analysis.
“We may have many individuals paying only the minimum contributions and a smaller number contributing in line with the median Portuguese wage,” he explained.
He also stressed that the data does not allow conclusions about whether the current level of contributions will be maintained in the future, given variables such as unemployment or emigration.
One of the arguments often used to justify immigration has been its contribution to “the future sustainability of Social Security”, but Góis cautions that things are not as they may initially seem. He added that “we do not know whether this sustainability is permanent”, because while current contributions strengthen the system, spending on this population is likely to increase in the future. Still, he noted that most new contributors are aged between 20 and 39, pushing that fiscal pressure much further down the line.
Source: JN / OM
