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Italy – the sad outlook

italy2The Italian economy, the third largest of the eurozone, is now 9% smaller than it was when the financial crisis struck in 2007.

In the intervening years, it has spun backwards three times into recession.  The most recent was announced very recently; the previous one endured on for two years.

The country has one of the world’s most aged population and shrinking resource of potential workers.  

Despite this, it has not been able to dent its unemployment rate which has hovered around the 12.5% mark for at least the last year.  It is one of the highest rates in the eurozone.

More than four out of every 10 of its youth have not been able to find paid work.

For some years before the 2007 benchmark, economic growth was extremely low.  There’s has been very little growth since then.

The ratio of government debt to gross domestic product is 130%.  With inflation at zero, the government will have an increasingly difficult time in repaying its loans.

More budget cuts are likely if the country is to stay within the EU deficit target of 3%.  This will inhibit economic growth.
The new prime minister, Matteo Renzi, gained power by promising reform, but Brussels and Frankfurt are urging him to step up the pace.

Investors wonder if the pace could be fast enough to stop the hemorrhaging.

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