The olive crop in much of southern Europe has been blighted by poor weather and bacterial attack as well as a proliferation of insects, resulting in a “black year” for oil production.
Consumers can expect the price of olive oil to rise.
Production will be at its lowest level in 15 years, according to the International Olive Council (IOC), which says that supply is down by 27% and prices had risen by 121% in December compared to December 2013.
Curtis Cord of the Olive Oil Times said the situation is “particularly painful”, adding that millions of people rely on the industry in Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Morocco and Tunisia.
“This has a profound, profound effect on families and producers in these regions, so it is a crisis,” he said.
Spain, the world’s biggest producer, experienced a hot late spring.
Olives in Italy, the second largest crop, were hit by pests and bad weather, pushing down harvests by 40% to 50% compared to last year. Crops were further harmed by unusually large flocks of starlings which destroyed much of the fruit.
Spain and Italy account for almost 70% of output, and the IOC forecasts that Spanish olive oil production will more than halve next year, to 825,700 tonnes. Production in Italy is expected to fall about a third to 302,500 tonnes, the lowest level since 1991.
Greece is the third largest producer followed by Portugal as the fourth. Production in Portugal was forecast to rise, a contradiction to the woes suffered elsewhere.
The olive oil industry is worth more than £2bn to southern European producers, so a downturn in production will hit both farmers and the economies of countries whose crops have failed.
Two-thirds of the world’s olive oil supply is consumed in Europe.
