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The Greeks' big chance to leave the eurozone

acropGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel is prepared to let Greece leave the eurozone if the Greeks vote for a government that decides to flout the current austerity measures.

A report in today’s Der Spiegel is published in tandem with polls showing a radical left wing party ahead three weeks before the Greek election.

Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza party, 'The Coalition of the Radical Left,' now has pledged not  to halt Troika reforms but to reverse them and renegotiate the terms of Greece’s bailout.

This could be a departure from the party's stated aim by its chief economic advisor, John Milios, who has downplayed fears that Greece under a Syriza government would exit the eurozone.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is of the same opinion as Merkel with both viewing a Greek exit from the eurozone as being ‘bearable.’

Germany sees recovery in the other EC problem children of Portugal and Ireland which should serve to ease the pressure if Greece goes it alone a ditches its responsibilities.

What Germany has not admitted is the impetus a Greek exit could give to Portugal to do the same - to default on or renegotiate its loans, revert to the Escudo,  and ditch the increasingly insistent Brussels requests that reforms to Portugal's archaic business and labour laws must actually happen sooner rather than in the distant future.

The dissolution of the current Greek parliament last week was due to an inability by its MPs to agree on a successor to the outgoing president Karolos Papoulias. This has kicked off the process for an early election, now set for January 25th.

Such is the general dissatisfaction of the Greek population with its politicians, who have failed to make any sense of the Greek economy despite being handed billions from the Troika, that the Syriza party easily has filled the void and promises the Greeks and their economy an interesting ride.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Alexis_Tsipras_Syriza.JPG/220px-Alexis_Tsipras_Syriza.JPG

Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Syriza party

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Comments  

-3 #8 Chip the Duck 2015-01-06 11:28
The very first paragraph sums up many (but not all) of the problems with the EU.

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is prepared to let Greece leave the eurozone if the Greeks vote for a government that decides to flout the current austerity measures."

It's damned civil of her as a foreign leader with no authority over Greece to allow democracy there! Shows who is running the EU and what contempt she has for the people of Europe- arrogant vaca.
-3 #7 Dilys 2015-01-06 09:28
The nonsensical command from Brussels that there is no arrangement in place for Greece to leave the euro ... is actually (pretty basic) reverse logic. But it may backfire.

Assume that Brussels is actually just tired of weakest link EU member states and wants to sweep the EU clean of perennial losers.

Technically Brussels makes the laws so can unmake them. That though is not the point of the statement - which we have heard before.

Surely, as with the Germans saying then withdrawing a Merkel statement that we Germans have already planned for Greece's exit .... it is to drive the Greeks out !

But, having unpicked this, will the Greeks now do the wrong thing and continue limping along with their notion, as with the Portuguese impression, of austerity?

A Portuguese austerity that has seen any number of regional administration, Financas branches, Freguesia's etc stated to be closed ... but still operating and so still costing the state.

And absurdly reducing Portugal's public sector by just shifting the 'dismissed' onto a mobility scheme for redeployment but - still paying out for them.
-5 #6 Mr John 2015-01-05 19:20
The thing is that in this country 'people just don't care' my parents left this country 50 years ago, and today it is exactly the same, what has changed, absolutely nothing, stand on your soap box, wave your arms in the air, scream and shout for change, it's a waste of time why because no one cares and no one listens, what can you do about a country that has been rotting for so long ? what my parents did 50 years ago and they are doing right now, moving to a better country for a better life because this country will never change.
-3 #5 Smithy 2015-01-05 15:29
For years now north Europeans have been referring to 'Post Traumatic Stress Disorder' (PTSD) in trying to understand Portugal's difficulties meshing in with more developed societies.

Their extreme neuroses.

But these should not be the European Union's problems and are obviously no excuse for repeatedly failing to meet today even the lowest standards required of EU membership.

Portugal's traumas started over 2 centuries ago in overseas lands when being challenged by, and losing out to, larger, stronger EUROPEAN countries. Then having their loss cemented in the mid 1800's Treaty of Berlin. Followed soon after by the 'English / Irish / Welsh / Scottish' (we are all equally guilty even now!!) 1890 Ultimatum.

So why then does Portugal join a EUROPEAN UNION and just p*ss about ???

Portugal have been molly coddled too long ! As our US cousins would say - Shape up or ship out !
-2 #4 Roger Thomas 2015-01-05 12:06
It is important that we approach this from the angle what is best for the EU. And that the "weakest links" are broken by us.

All north Europeans are entitled to ask 'Was Portugal ever really in the European Union' ?

For example in subscribing to open borders and markets. And standards of business, administration and professional behaviour.

In Portugal there are undisclosed 'closed sectors' that stop growth. Anyone not here intending pensioned retirement ie 'early retired' has had absolutely no chance to legally own and run businesses in - most notably - tourism.

In addition, and this affects the retired - there has been no supervision at all of the Value of Works done (Valor das Obras) in any kind of building or renovation work.

Some of the overcharging is beyond criminal. Particularly when it is linked, as almost always, to misleading advice from some professional - such as a Municipal architect or technical officer insisting certain work is done or not done.

Then bundle in 'associated shabby tactics' by other professionals vital to life here such as lawyers and accountants. Not EU standard at all !!!
+1 #3 Ed 2015-01-05 11:31
Quoting Peter Booker:
For me the interesting question is: why is there no Syriza party in Portugal?

and we have the Left Bloc, a rag tag of bickering interests with no clear agenda but to oppose everyting the government coalition does, not all of which is bad.
-1 #2 Peter Booker 2015-01-05 11:23
For me the interesting question is: why is there no Syriza party in Portugal? The opposition in this country is too fragmented and weak for a voluntary exit from the eurozone to be credible. But it would not be too difficult to contemplate the smaller and underperforming economies being ejected from the eurozone, if the Greek exit is managed well.

Portuguese politicians would then have to face the cold winds of economic reality with no EU buffer. I bet things would change more quickly in the Portuguese economy to make it more competitive.
-2 #1 Dilys 2015-01-05 09:46
increasingly insistent Brussels requests that reforms to Portugal's archaic business and labour laws must actually happen sooner rather than in the distant future.

This is the fundamental point. Nobody can claim that there is wide divergence in 'economic and social development between Greece and Portugal. And the Troika would only ever admit to the world to having one problem child - Greece. Portugal was encouraged to 'pretend' yet again that it was 'behaving'. When it has clearly not been.

So - Was either Portugal or Greece sufficiently developed to ever have been in the European Union.

Having the laws are meaningless if they are not being implemented ... or are distorted by 'local oligarchs'.

But the tourism sector is specifically closed to EU foreigners to protect 'local oligarchs'! Bureaucracy being the excuse for endless expensive delays.

Note this in Spiegel : speculates that the (land registration) plan likely fell afoul of one of the local oligarchs that pulls the strings in the background.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-zone-debate-third-bailout-package-for-greece-a-1005977.html

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