A new El Niño weather cycle has started, according to the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia which says the changed weather of prolonged hotter, drier conditions are expected to dominate the climate there in the second half of the year.
They do not anticipate that a new El Niño will affect only Australia but will his other parts of the tropical Pacific region.
This could result in the price of various foods going up again in price as floods and drought harm production. Wheat – Australia accounts for 15% of global exports – as well as coffee and sugar could be particularly hit.
El Niño weather cycles result from a warming of the Pacific Ocean as part of a complex cycle of the interchange between atmosphere and ocean.
The phenomenon can have dramatic consequences on climate around the world, but the consequences of El Niño are much less clear for Europe.
It can bring with it heat waves, longer frost seasons, drought or floods, although every episode differs. Of the 26 events since 1900, 17 have seen widespread drought. Globally, seven out of 10 of the hottest years on record were in an El Niño year or the year after.
A severe El Niño five years ago was linked to poor monsoons in Southeast Asia, droughts in southern Australia, the Philippines and Ecuador, blizzards in the US, heat waves in Brazil and extreme flooding in Mexico and California.
Back in 1998, the El Niño pushed up average world temperatures to record highs in which more people than usual died.
Scientists believe this El Niño will be “substantial”, lasting through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.
Research suggests that extreme El Niño events will become more likely as global temperatures rise.
