'Brexit, Grexit and the Algarve' by Jack Soifer

greekbankSome scientific papers were edited by Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (kas.de/griechenland/en), written by authors such as Mark Blyth and Kostas Lavdas (from Massachusetts), state that the Troika made serious mistakes in Greece.

In 2012, I heard about the Euro-M, Mediterranean. It would reduce the disparity in the competitiveness of SMEs in order to compete with France and Germany.

Taking the Troika out of Greece is not an economic decision, it's politics. In 2013 foreign debt was forecasted to 200% of GNP in 2018 (p.10). It is not nice for the EU, Germany & ECB to rule a bankrupt economy; it would be deemed a failure. Now they will say because Greece is no longer under the Troika it has to exit.

P.42: "Troika: lack of specialised experts ... incompetence ... breaking oligopolies to raise competition did not happen".

As in Portugal, the Troika imposed what profited foreign banks the most. Thousands of SMEs went bankrupt, good industries and Greek public companies were sold at sale price to speculators and foreign funds.

P.62: "The single currency did not unite Europeans nor unequal economies. On the contrary, differences have been established and kept as such."

"The Euro made Greece lose 30% of GNP in 5 years," says Mark Blyth. Even if debt maturity is extended, "if growth is not restored it is the end of the game; and not only for Greece," p.72. Page 53: "reshape these loans into 100-year bonds at favorable rates". A pipe-dream?

Greece has long drastically reduced pensions which aids the administration but interest paid mainly to Germany leave no money for public investment. Without this there are no reforms, without them there is no growth.

The only way out is a Grexit, since Greece can not quit the Euro. But Greece is key for political and geostrategic balance. With the Turkey-USA conflict and the Islamisation of Turkey, Greece is an important partner. It received 70,000 Islamist refugees in a single year. Despite its economic difficulties, it showed solidarity. It was hardly compensated in Euros.

"It is not nice for the EU, Germany & ECB to rule a bankrupt economy; it would be deemed a failure... The single currency did not unite the Europeans... interest rates paid to mainly Germany leaves no money for public investment. Without this there are no reforms, without them there is no growth."

The EU depends on Greece for the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, to bring gas from Azerbaijan to Italy, then to Europe. Out of 880 kilometres of pipe, 550 kilometres are in Greece in areas where people, impoverished by the Euro, could sabotage them.

The USA-Russia/Turkey conflict requires top military bases in Greece.

Greece, like Austria and Finland, waits for details of the Brexit to quit the EU. Hungary, impoverished by the Euro, will try to renegotiate it. Who profited of it? Mainly France and Germany.

The Economist states that the EU countries with highest growth and lowest unemployment are not in the Euro: Poland, the Czech Republic and Sweden.

Leaving Greece, the Troika gives prestige to government in the forthcoming elections. It allows structural reforms to be announced but not made. The "electorate is justifiably sad (with the EU)," p. 47.

How much will the Algarvians lose when the UK, Austria and Finland quit the EU?

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Comments  

0 #1 Peter D 2018-09-02 13:25
What a load of unsubstantiated tosh.

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