The final week of campaigning ahead of Sunday’s presidential election began with Socialist Party (PS) candidate António José Seguro in the lead, according to a daily Pitagórica poll for a group of national newspapers including JN, TSF, TVI and CNN.
The Socialist-backed candidate stands at 22.9% and is the only presidential hopeful to register growth among the top five since the last poll conducted by the entity. Cotrim Figueiredo (21.1%), of the centre-right Liberal Initiative (IL) and Ventura (19.7%) of the populist right-wing Chega party, are holding steady, while further back the independent admiral-cum-politician Gouveia e Melo (16.3%) and Government-backed Social Democratic Party (PSD) candidate Luís Marques Mendes (14%) continue to lose ground.
In Portugal, to be elected President of the Republic a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote, an absolute majority (50% plus one vote). Blank and spoiled ballots are not taken into account.
If none of the 11 candidates achieve this threshold, which is the most likely outcome, a second round will be held on 8 February, contested only by the two candidates who receive the most votes on the 18th. In that run-off, commonly referred to as the ‘second round’, the candidate with the higher vote total will be elected.
Also worth mentioning is that the result of this poll did not yet reflect Monday’s developments, with Cotrim Figueiredo being thrust into a PR nightmare: first for not ruling out support for André Ventura if he fails to make it to the second round himself, and later facing a dubious allegation of harassment made by a former adviser.
Seguro’s breakaway does not yet allow him to celebrate a place in the run-off, as he remains in a statistical tie with the Liberal candidate and the Chega leader. In this scenario, Cotrim Figueiredo’s best possible outcome (upper bound) is 24.4%, above Seguro’s lower bound (19.5%). The same applies to Ventura, whose upper bound (22.9%) could also put him in first place.
Over the past three days, the proportion of undecided voters has stabilised at 11.2%, unchanged from the previous poll. Women (12.6%) are more undecided than men (9.7%), as are respondents aged over 55 (13.1%) compared with younger voters (10.3%) and those aged 35 to 54 (9.4%). Regionally, the North is the most decided (9.1%) and the Centre the most undecided (13.7%).
Despite leading voting intentions in the daily poll, António José Seguro is far from the strongest performer in media terms. Based on what respondents to the poll have seen and read about the candidates in recent days, liberal Cotrim Figueiredo boasts the best performance in the media.
André Ventura records the sharpest deterioration in media image, according to the poll, with the PSD’s Luís Marques Mendes and the admiral Gouveia e Melo not faring much better than him.
Regionally, an interesting pattern emerges, with no repeat winners. In the North there is a near tie between Seguro (21.6%) and Cotrim (21.3%). In the Centre, Seguro leads by a clear margin (19.1%); in Lisbon, Cotrim tops the poll (24.1%); and in the rest of the country André Ventura leads (22.6%).
By social class, the pattern also varies: higher-income voters favour Cotrim Figueiredo (24.6%); the middle class backs António José Seguro (22%); and lower-income voters prefer André Ventura (25.4%). Luís Marques Mendes, at one point leading polls, has lost support across all income groups.
Source: Pitagórica
