Most economists say that in 2019 the EU and particularly Portugal will have a drop in GNP, mainly because the US will import less but also because the EU will have to carry out improved checks on laundered money used to purchase real estate, espcecially in Portugal.
Also, more speculative investment funds will quit the EU for the more profitable markets in New Zealand, Australia, Chile and Bolivia.
Elections this year both for the EU-parliament and some of the major countries, such as Germany, will bring small extreme parties to power, which will bring chaos to governments without sufficient support among MPs. In Sweden right now, an extreme-right party has 20% of seats so neither the traditional centre-left nor the centre-right is able to govern. Only four months after elections, most of the media echoes calls for new elections.
Portugal’s government is very optimistic on state revenues. A major drop will affect tax-paying SMEs. Most major corporations here have their fiscal registration in Holland, Luxembourg or tax paradises where they pay less. They will sack workers, as exports drop, which will increase the State's social payments. Less demand for homes, as this real estate bubble implodes, as in 2009, will end another 200,000 jobs in construction and construction materials.
The PM HAS TO CUT THE BUDGET!
Public basic school education costs too much. Portugal is probably the only ‘civilized’ country where it is centralised. Today, a teacher leaving in Coimbra may have to work in Lagos. Teachers have wage increases every two years, independent of the test results of their pupils.
In most countries a teacher has a broader competence and stays in villages where small schools are a main part of the society. By meeting his students’ parents at the local club, supermarket, village fairs, he understands the children and with empathy can motivates them to learn.
In these countries a teacher is evaluated not only on the school results of their students but also by his or her capacity to make them good citizens. Evaluation is by parents and external directors as well.
At the university level we see thousands of youngsters leave with plenty of theories but limited practice. Most of them are unemployed and the best ones quit Portugal. Down here, unlike most of North European countries and the US, universities have almost no interaction with enterprises and productive NGOs.
They also have lots of resources which are seldom used, such as very valuable real estate, laboratories, and personnel. Some professors spend most of the time reading newspapers and writing in blogs instead of teaching or undertaking practical research that is useful to regional or national enterprises. This way there is no funding by corporations, unlike in other countries.
In other words, once built and equipped, universities should have almost zero public budget. Students have to pay and should get a loan, as for instance in the Nordic countries, which they can repay over ten years, once they start working after their degree.