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Pound Sterling exchange rates have had a very good month in May, considering news of a UK election coming in July, the volatility has very much been swayed in favour of Sterling, which has given us a positive start to June. June will be an interesting month with plenty of data releases to keep us busy- we also have interest rate decisions from the UK, U.S and Europe, with Europes cut already priced in, if we see a cut from either the BoE or the Fed, this will definitely add more volatility into the market.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence edged slightly higher for May’s reading yesterday, from -14.7 to -14.3. It was in line with expectations but more importantly reflected the smallest extent of pessimism by consumers since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. This has been partly driven by inflation finally slowing, as well as growing expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by The European Central Bank next week.
Sterling has recently held on steady against the EUR and as no economic data releases today that should have an impact on the GBP/EUR rate, eyes are now on tomorrow’s core inflation and inflation levels being released in Europe. Recent trajectories suggest that inflation levels will increase for May. From an economic standpoint this scenario is never a promising sign for a central bank – seeing economic growth slowing down and seeing a turn of increasing price levels.
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Last week was constructive for Sterling exchange rates with GBPEUR ending the week at 1.1685, and GBPUSD ending the week at 1.27. EURUSD was also bullish last week closing on Friday at 1.0870.
As we enter a new week, there are different data releases to focus on which could shift the mood as far as exchange rates are concerned, on Monday we have a relatively quiet day but we do have a few speeches, the most noteworthy being from BoE’s Broadbent and Barr, Waller and Jefferson of the Fed.
